Executive Overview
Global state of Mars Risk, Readiness, and Model Health
Mars Risk Index (MRI)
Composite systemic risk
High sensitivity
0.72 ↑
+3.4% vs last 30 days
Volatility0.12
Confidence87%
Overall Readiness
Weighted readiness layers
Improving
0.64 ↔
+0.5% vs last 30 days
Risk Forecast (7 / 30 / 90 days)
AI-DRF projected risk band
Drivers & Readiness Shape
Explainers
Top Risk Drivers
Factor Impact
Societal Factors +18%
Tech Reliability +12%
Innovation Age Impact +7%
Readiness Profile
System Health & Model Status
Operational
Data Integrity 98.3% Streaming telemetry coverage
Drift & Stability Low drift Stability index: 0.91
Last Recalibration 12 hours ago Champion model v3.4.1
What-If Scenarios
Ask natural-language questions and see MRI, Readiness, SF, and IAI reflections
Scenario Prompt
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MRI Reflection
Impact
Previous MRI0.72
Scenario MRI0.72
Change+0.00
Readiness Reflection
Impact
Total Readiness 0.64 → 0.64
Change+0.00
Societal + IAI Reflection
Behavioral Response
SF value 0.18 → 0.18
IAI value 0.446 → 0.446
SF impact on risk +0.00
IAI impact on risk buffer +0.00
Mission Impact Reflection
Scenario Spread
Ares-1+0.00
Ares-3+0.00
Long-Term Projection Reflection
1 / 3 / 5-Year Horizon
5-Year Risk Trajectory Δ +1.5%
AI-DRF Risk Calculation
Core risk equation, factor sliders, and sensitivity
Core Equation
Explainer
Radjusted = (L × C × W) × (1 + SF) × (1 − IAI)
Likelihood (L)
Current0.68
Consequence (C)
Current0.74
Weight (W)
Current0.36
Societal Factors (SF)
Composite socio-political signal
Adds risk
SF Value+0.18
Contribution to risk+11.8%
Innovation Age Impact (IAI)
Demographic innovation influence
Reduces risk
IAI0.446
Net effect−13.0% risk
Factor Sensitivity
∂R / ∂f
Scenario Simulator
What-if panel
Societal Factors+20%
IAI (Innovation Age)−10% 25–34 group
Recomputed Risk Radjusted = 0.188 (+7.3%)
Readiness Dashboard
Weighted readiness dimensions across engineering, operations, society, and environment
Overall Readiness Score
Σ αᵢ xᵢ with normalized weights
On track
0.64
+0.09 since 2021
Readiness Shape
Dimensions
Category Weight Score Contribution
Engineering 0.25 0.70 0.175
Operations 0.20 0.55 0.110
Innovation 0.15 0.62 0.093
Societal 0.15 0.48 0.072
Political/Economic 0.15 0.52 0.078
Environmental 0.10 0.40 0.040
Societal Factors
Public support, sentiment, geopolitics, misinformation, and crew climate
Public Support & Sentiment
External environment
Public Support Index
Current0.62
Global Sentiment
Trend−0.07
Geopolitics & Information Integrity
Fragile
Geopolitical Stability
Score0.44
Misinformation Index
Score0.33
Behavioral Dynamics
Decision climate
Behavioral volatility0.27
Crew Psychological Climate
Healthy
Climate score0.72
Net Impact on Risk
Societal Factors SF+0.18
Contribution to MRI+11.8% risk
Innovation Demographics (IAI)
Age-band innovation output and their impact on risk
Contribution by Age Group
zᵍ & βg
IAI Equation & Summary
Risk buffer
IAI = θ × Σ βg zg
θ (Tuning factor)0.85
Σ βg zg0.525
IAI0.446
Impact on risk −13% MRI
Alerts & Model Health
Mission-critical anomalies and model governance signals
Active Alerts
Attention required
Alert Severity Impact Status
Solar Activity Spike High +18% Active
Sentiment Crash Medium +7% Active
Tech Reliability Issue High +12% Active
R&D Funding Drop Low +3% Monitoring
Anomaly Timeline
Last 72 hours
  • 12:42 UTC
    Solar flare detected, CME flagged
  • 09:10 UTC
    Sentiment crash after policy announcement
  • 02:08 UTC
    Spike in subsystem failure logs
  • Yesterday
    Funding reallocation in key R&D programs
Model Health Indicators
AI governance
Drift Score 0.07 Low drift
Data Integrity 98.3% Validated payloads
Sensitivity Stability 0.91 Stable factor ranking
Overfitting Risk Low
Recalibration Log
Champion vs Challenger
Parameter Prev New Δ
αEngineering 0.25 0.27 +0.02
αSocietal 0.15 0.13 −0.02
β25–34 0.40 0.43 +0.03
θ 0.85 0.88 +0.03
RMSE 0.091 0.082 −9.9%
Strategic Trends
5-year evolution of risk, readiness, and key macro drivers
5-Year Risk Trend
MRI trajectory
5-Year Readiness Trend
Capacity build-up
Key Drivers Over Time
Macro factors
Future Projection
1 / 3 / 5-year bands
Mission Comparison
Compare risk and readiness profiles across missions
Dashboard 09
Mission Selector
What-if focus
Selected mission Ares-2 (Baseline)
Risk Comparison
Across missions
Readiness Comparison
Shape of readiness
Mission Details
Top drivers
Mission Risk Highest Risk Factor Readiness Status
Ares-1 High Societal volatility 0.58 At risk
Ares-2 Medium Tech reliability 0.65 Stable
Ares-3 Low Environmental exposure 0.71 Strong
RedPath Medium Innovation demographics 0.60 Improving
Horizon High Funding volatility 0.56 Warning